CABINET RESHUFFLE OR POLITICAL PAYBACK?

UNCLAS BELMOPAN 000097 

DEPT FOR WHA/CEN - CHRISTOPHER ASHE 

E.O. 12958: N/A 
TAGS: PGOV PREL PINR BH
SUBJECT:  CABINET RESHUFFLE OR POLITICAL PAYBACK? 

¶1. Summary:  Less than one week after the incumbent United 
Democratic Party (UDP) won a landslide victory in municipal 
elections, the Prime Minister (PM) has reshuffled his cabinet. 
These changes involve the removal of one Minister -- Marcel Cardona, 
changed portfolios for three more, and the restructuring of two 
Ministries.  While the move is widely seen as political payback and 
has raised criticism from the ousted Cardona, the overwhelming UDP 
majority is not likely to suffer from much political fallout.  End 
summary. 

¶2.  On March 10, 2009 PM Dean Barrow announced that he would be 
making changes to his Cabinet.  The GOB has stated publicly that 
this change of portfolios is "in the interest of smooth functioning 
of the business of Government."  These changes involve the removal 
of one Minister, Marcel Cardona, the reshuffle of three more, and 
the restructuring of two Ministries.  As Minister of Culture, 
Sports, and Youth since the UDP came to power in February 2008, 
Cardona is now just a backbencher.  His former Ministry has been 
divided up.  Jose Manuel Heredia, currently the Minister of Tourism 
and Civil Aviation, has been assigned additional responsibility in 
the area of Culture.  Elvin Penner, formerly a Minister of State in 
the Ministry of Natural Resources and the Environment, has been 
appointed Minister for Youth, Sports, Information and Broadcasting. 
Former backbencher Marco Pech has been appointed to replace Penner 
as Minister of State in the Ministry of Natural Resources and the 
Environment. 

¶3.  The change followed a special meeting of the Cabinet on March 6, 
during which Deputy Prime Minister Gaspar Vega called for the 
removal of Cardona.  From his appointment a year ago, Cardona has 
been criticized as not having enough experience to hold a 
Ministerial level position; however, his replacement has even less 
experience. 

¶4.  Cardona has stated he believes that he was removed as a form of 
punishment for having publicly embarrassed the PM and his 
self-avowed open, transparent, accountable, and corruption-free 
Government, by publicly exposing the obvious sweetheart deal 
involving the development of land at an archaeological reserve.  The 
secret contract was signed by Diane Haylock, the president of the 
National Institute of Culture and History (NICH).  Beginning in 
January when the controversy over Haylock's unauthorized contract 
erupted in the media, Cardona denounced her actions and called for 
her removal.  He was then directed by the Cabinet to extend her 
contract for another year.  Following this episode, he chose not to 
actively campaign for the UDP during the recent municipal election, 
though he refrained from openly criticizing the party.  This led UDP 
leaders, including Vega, to suggest he was not a "team player." 

¶5.  Comment. While the cabinet reshuffle was not unexpected, the 
scale is smaller than many anticipated.  It was widely believed that 
more than one Minister would be replaced and that the portfolios of 
several Ministers would be reduced.  Zeroing in on Cardona as the 
only Cabinet Minister ousted from his position, his removal is seen 
as the political consequence of his failing to follow the party line 
during the unauthorized contract controversy.  Many in the party 
felt that Cardona's open opposition to the NICH President, a friend 
of the PM and long-time party loyalist, was a slap at the PM and 
party. 

¶6.  After taking 64 of 67 seats in the municipal election of March 
4, the UDP can afford to make this obvious political change to the 
cabinet without incurring much backlash.  While there is speculation 
that Cardona may court proposals from the PUP, this will not likely 
result in much political fallout for the UDP, as the next elections 
are not slated until early 2013.  The more intense speculation 
concerns if and when the PM will follow through with a further 
reshuffle of the Cabinet, which is expected to involve changes 
concerning more powerful and politically-connected Ministers. 
Recent events suggest that such a move will not occur until at least 
after the new budget is announced at the end of the month.  End 
Comment. 

DIFFILY

[Source: WikiLeaks]